摘要
由於美國經濟依然強勁，加上市場的軟著陸預期升溫，短期內風險性資產將有更多成長空間。然而在財務緊縮的情況下，未來 6 至 12 月的經濟衰退風險將會提升。
總體經濟：未來 6 至 12 月有輕微衰退風險
未來 6 至 12 月的衰退風險提升，尤其是在金融條件緊縮的背景下。我們目前處於景氣循環的「後期」，貨幣及財政政策緊縮可能進一步抑制經濟成長，經濟衰退較有可能集中在已開發國家市場。基本上，我們的多元資產組合方案（Multi Asset Portfolio Solutions）團隊預測，美國即將出現的衰退不會太嚴重，也就是不會出現顯著的經濟緊縮。
圖1、花旗經濟驚奇指數
資料來源：LSEG Datastream，2023 年 10 月 13 日。
資產配置：透過風險承擔把握投資機會
美國經濟強勁以及市場對軟著陸的預期持續升溫，有利於當前市場環境。亞洲方面，中國近期的刺激政策正朝著正確方向發展，市場看好未來數月政策效能的提升。我們團隊認為此環境下，風險性資產在短期投資方面仍有更多成長空間。然而，當風險性資產估值過高，團隊將會靈活地轉而配置避險資產，反之亦然。雖然我們團隊基本預測未來 6 至 12 月內會出現輕微衰退，但仍將透過風險承擔把握投資機會。
圖2、資產配置觀點
資料來源：資產類別觀點是多元資產投資組合解決方案團隊截至 10 月最近一次會議的觀點，不應視作建議。本文所載資料可由投資經理人酌情更改，恕不另行通知。
股票：亞洲股票中期表現有望贏過大盤
由於亞洲出口穩健，加上經濟數據表現強勁，團隊看好亞洲（除日本）股票的中期表現。中國領導人/監管機構所執行的支持性政策也讓中國（與周邊地區）的房地產市場趨於穩定。相較其他地區，亞洲地區估值更加便宜（本益比為 12.1 倍）。儘管全球經濟衰退集中於成熟市場，亞洲股票仍會受其影響，因此團隊預計亞洲股票估值呈區間震盪。中國基本面的改善也有助於抵禦部分波動，使亞洲股票較不受全球經濟衰退影響，並為長遠發展奠定良好基礎。
圖3、IBES MSCI 12個月預估本益比﹙倍﹚
資料來源：LSEG Datastream，2023 年 10 月 13日。
債券：美國公債 12 個月內持續具吸引力
隨著全球經濟成長放緩，大部經濟體（尤其是美國）的升息週期已接近尾聲。因此，我們的多元資產投資組合解決方案團隊預計，美國未來的降息空間將大於升息空間。儘管聯準會在最近一次會議暫停了鷹派政策，聯邦基金利率期貨（Federal Funds Future）的市場定價也反映了長期維持高利率的預測，我們的團隊仍認為經濟衰退的可能性增加，美國存續期間在未來3個月相當具吸引力。
在經濟衰退背景下，未來 12 個月美國公債也尤其具吸引力，可能再次成為有效的分散投資工具。團隊的基本預測是未來 6 至 12 個月出現輕微的經濟衰退，因此利差有顯著擴大的空間。我們預計非投資等級債券的利差將進一步增加；投資級債券價格會在區間盤整，因為高利差可能被美國殖利率下跌所抵銷。
貨幣：美元受惠於美國經濟成長與高利率
基於對美國「長期高利率」的預期，MAPS 團隊正在增持美元並擴大利差。多種因子也顯示穩健的基本面及樂觀市場情緒的訊號。另外，我們團隊識別出美元的逆週期特性──通常在衰退期間表現良好。因此在我們的基本預測下，美元有望在中期表現亮眼。
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