調查摘要
- 瀚亞針對北美、歐洲和亞洲共150 名高層主管調查顯示，供應鏈再平衡是企業的首要任務之一。 隨著全球供應鏈的發展，企業正在重新平衡，不僅要降低風險，更要把握機會。
- 「高成本」和「缺乏能力」是供應鏈再平衡的最大障礙。儘管代價高昂，但若不採取行動的代價將更高。
- 不少對未來供應鏈重要性日益增長的市場，在全球和區域股票市場指數中僅占很低的權重。投資者需要採取更有效的策略，找出全球再平衡趨勢下的超額投資潛力。
供應鏈變化對投資人很重要！我們已經看到半導體晶片短缺如何影響 2022 年汽車製造商的股價。全球供應鏈再平衡是一個長期主題。我們的白皮書希望為全球投資者提供更多有關變動中的供應鏈格局，以及這些轉變所帶來的新投資機會。
我們提出最新白皮書調查，深入北美、歐洲和亞洲地區，觀察有關汽車、電子製造、製藥和醫療設備行業為主的龍頭企業，看它們如何在推動成長和解決供應鏈問題之間，評估再平衡過程哪些是優先項目。
提高供應鏈彈性，是三大產業龍頭企業的首要任務之一
問、 針對以下業務項目的重要性，依照從高至低進行排序。
圖表來源：瀚亞投資亞洲白皮書－The rebalancing roadmap (Pg 19)
全球供應鏈轉移是由地緣政治、貿易中斷、氣候事件和成本等關鍵結構性因素所驅動的。 然而，2020 年以來的一系列顛覆性事件加速了這些轉變，並迫使企業重新評估其策略重點，以保持彈性和競爭力。 企業正在重新評估對單一供應商或單一市場採購策略的依賴，這些策略從歷史上看具有成本效益，但現在變得越來越脆弱。
本次調查的三個地區中，北美企業的再平衡成本最高
問、相對於貴公司過去 3 年的平均營業收入，認為未來（3-5 年）必須投資多少比例來達到供應鏈的多元化/再平衡目標？
圖表來源：瀚亞投資亞洲白皮書－The rebalancing roadmap (Pg 12)從投資新工廠到培育與新供應商的策略合作關係，全球企業都在致力重新平衡供應鏈並增強彈性。然而，全球供應鏈的結構性重組是代價高昂的工作。根據我們的調查，企業領導者認為，從中期來看，公司平均將投入年收入的 14% 投資於供應鏈再平衡。
再平衡失能，將對企業利潤帶來重大影響
問、如果貴公司目前的供應鏈保持不變，那麼在接下來的時間內，有多少百分比的利潤可能會受到負面影響，甚至面臨風險？
圖表來源：瀚亞投資亞洲白皮書－The rebalancing roadmap (Pg 20)
儘管重新平衡成本高昂，有75%商業領袖認為，不採取行動的代價較重新平衡更高。未能實現重新平衡可能導致未來10年有19%~24%的利潤面臨風險，視不同行業而有所差異。然而，再平衡最大障礙是成本高昂及能力不足。此外，官僚障礙、技術缺乏、貿易規則及供應短缺亦阻礙有關進度。
供應鏈網絡正在改變 — 歐洲企業仍高度看好亞洲
問、供應鏈的所在地至關重要，對於各地區企業的重要性成長幅度最大（目前及 5 至 10 年內）
圖表來源：瀚亞投資亞洲白皮書－The rebalancing roadmap (Pg 9)
儘管目前主導全球供應鏈的市場（如美國和中國）未來仍然重要，但它們對不同地區的相對重要性將會發生變化，同時反映地緣政治因素。 我們的調查顯示，印度、墨西哥以及東南亞、新興歐洲和南美洲等市場，對於未來供應鏈的重要性預計將日益增長。
投資影響
那些未來可能受益於全球供應鏈轉移的市場，目前在全球性及地區性股票市場指數中僅占很小權重。新興市場 (EM) 在 MSCI AC 世界指數的權重為 10%，而東協的權重僅有1%。與此同時，印度及東協分別占MSCI新興市場指數的13%及6%。
因此，這些市場加權指數對於預計將在全球供應鏈再平衡中最為受惠的國家僅提供有限的曝險。這些指數亦往往偏向被廣泛持有、市值較大的股票，有可能降低投資組合的分散投資及超額報酬優勢。因此，投資者或需要考慮採取更有效的策略，以發揮全球再平衡主題的超額回報潛力。
以上是瀚亞投資：亞洲白皮書《重塑供應鏈關鍵因素：投資者的新機遇》的重點摘錄。 按此下載完整報告。（僅提供英文版本）
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