摘要
全球降息醞釀中，各類風險性資產蓄勢待發，第二季投資將更為關鍵。瀚亞投信展望股票、債券表現生機蓬勃，在通膨巨獸環境下，持有現金、不投資，恐怕才是最大風險。
債市：三大債券有出息 各有亮點
美國聯準會主席鮑威爾先前給予較明確利率政策指引，有望於 2024 年底前降息，而市場樂觀預期，最快於第二季末、第三季初將迎來首次降息。隨著不少國家利率見頂，降息啟動也將帶動債券價格回升，以當前相對高的債息水準，將極具吸引力。
現正處於「停止升息、醞釀降息」的時間點，是債券布局的好時機，瀚亞投信第二季持續看好投資等級債、非投資等級債、新興市場美元債，三大債券資產將各具優勢，占據不同戰略位置。
其中，隨著美國經濟軟著陸，基本面有撐，信評較佳且殖利率高於 5% 的投資等級債，自然成為不少長期投資資金的青睞。
而風險性債券，也隨著降息而迎來布局機會，以非投資等級債為例，目前收益率位於過去十年高檔，由於信用債市利率風險變小，未來 12 個月違約率將降至 3% 以下，預期總報酬相對可觀。而通膨下降、經濟指標上升，新興市場央行更有底氣進行降息，而根據歷史經驗，當聯準會升息暫停至下一次降息期間，新興債將出現反彈，第二季尤其看好存續期較短的新興美元公司債。
圖1、債市投資展望摘要
資料來源：瀚亞投信整理, 2024/3股市：科技股強勢 高成長支撐股價
龍年股市展現多頭氣勢，包括美股、歐股、日股、台股及印度等市場，不約而同都在第一季繳出亮眼漲幅。瀚亞投信認為，這些市場在經濟復甦、降息預期及企業獲利成長、選舉利多等不同題材帶動下，第二季將持續看好美、日、印、台股市；而科技股將維持強勢，建議投資人逢低加碼、長線定期定額布局，搭上科技應用的多頭列車。
在科技七巨頭帶動下，美股首季漲勢連連，市場對美國經濟增長不再悲觀，美股進入盈餘上升週期，2024 / 2025 盈餘成長分別為 8%、6%，預料本益比仍有上升空間，而美國科技股將是投資人中長期布局重點。
日本股市第一季創新高，不少國際機構預期，指數還有上漲空間，除了薪資成長推動日本擺脫通縮，也帶動企業盈餘上修，進而推升股價，日股改革政策一波波，也將成為中長期上漲的驅動力。
新興股市則優選台股及印度，其中印度五月迎來總理大選，加上印度央行 RBI 預計今明兩年 GDP 成長會高達 7% 以上，CPI 降溫更加深下半年降息預期，儘管股市已經創新高，但利多行情將延續。台股方面，在基本面、資金豐沛的多頭格局下，指數易漲難跌，看好包括 AI PC 供應鏈、AI 散熱、網通等科技族群，以及重電與紡織為主的傳產股機會。
圖2、股市投資展望摘要
資料來源：瀚亞投信整理, 2024/3不投資才是最大風險 Q2標的推薦
第二季投資組合，股票和債券皆不可少，特別是科技股為主的美股，還有具備上漲潛力的歐股、日股、印度及台股，個別具備上漲題材，可透過瀚亞境內、境外系列基金投資，跟上資本利得上漲行情；另有完整的境外債券系列基金、平衡組合型產品供多元選擇。
圖3、2024年第二季精選基金清單
資料來源：瀚亞投信更多文章
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