摘要

 

2024 上半年 AI 浪潮儼然成為全球金融市場催化劑,第三季處於股市創高、降息預期階段,將是利多可期或是風險將至?

展望第三季投資環境,瀚亞投信投資長林如惠認為應該留意:景氣回溫、降息預期、AI浪潮、聚焦印度等四大焦點。其中,利率政策牽動各類資產表現,歐洲、加拿大、巴西等國家央行已開始進入降息週期,而市場最引頸期盼的美國,因通膨數據難控,使聯準會延後降息時程和幅度。而市場表現往往受到降息預期心理所牽動,不管是股市或債券連動度跟著升高,第三季或將因此出現震盪,但中線維持樂觀。

好消息是,全球經濟維持復甦腳步,美國企業獲利成長展望良好,AI 浪潮及企業所帶的高成長,更將持續推動股價。隨著投資情緒偏向樂觀,建議風險性資產可以積極持有,特別是 AI 大趨勢下的科技股;但也別忘了做好債券布局或分散配置,從收益率角度來看,債券殖利率維持高檔、處於相對甜蜜點,是投資人鞏固息收的最佳時機。

債市:收益率高點 投資笑顏「債」展開

美國金髮女孩經濟(Goldilocks Economy)環境將延續,也就是,經濟軟著陸的劇本會持續上演,目前政策利率遠高於中性利率。而根據前次聯準會預防性降息經驗,信用債後市都有不錯的表現空間,以 1995 年 7 月開始的預防性降息為例,總計三碼的降息,成功幫助周薪年增率回升,且通貨膨脹率穩定處於 2.7%,而在預防性降息半年或一年後,包括美國投資等級債、美國非投資等級債及新興市場債券都有上漲表現。

瀚亞投信固定收益部主管周曉蘭亦表示,未來貨幣政策方向及投資環境較為確定,更有利於投資人累積收益,雖然短線受到降息預期心理而有震盪,但目前布局信用債券,不僅擁有較高的收益率水準,下檔違約損失也可控,淨收益率(收益率-違約損失)也較高。

債市建議同時配置投資等級債、非投資級債,前者因較高的經濟增長/更高的利率/更少的美聯儲降息,加上強勁的市場技術面以及相對較高的美債收益率及供應放緩,預計利差仍有收斂機會。至於非投資等級債券,則是從評價面、技術面及基本面來看皆有優勢,預期在適度降息、利差可控和溫和違約環境情境下,預期非投等債未來 12 個月有接近雙位數報酬率的機會。

股市:科技股強勢 高成長支撐股價

股市受到AI科技應用浪潮推升,尤其台灣、美國因相關題材及供應鏈實質受惠,進而推升股市上揚,第三季進入產業旺季,科技股可望維持多頭格局,建議投資人持有相關基金。

從區域或個別國家來看,瀚亞投信認為,已開發市場以美國股市最優,日股則有薪資成長、通膨及大量企業回購庫藏股等利多支撐股價,散戶進場將帶動更多資金活水續撐日股;歐洲亦有製造業景氣復甦、評價低廉、降息資金行情等題材陸續發酵。

新興股市則最看好台股,在美國可能進入降息周期循環下,若短期拉回修正風險屬正常現象,預期在資金充沛以及產業基本面持續走強下,多頭格局延續,拉回仍應偏多操作。產業族群看好 AI 概念股(AI PC/ODM/散熱)、低基期-高價電子(ASIC/IP/高速傳輸) 、重電/風電、金融等類股。

長線成長題材的印度,儘管總理選舉題材已過,執政黨獲得議會席次不如預期導致股市短期波動,惟莫迪仍有望開啟第三任任期,其製造業輔助、發展基礎建設及吸引外資進入等政策有望得以延續,中長期成長故事不受影響。瀚亞持續看好印度黃金十年高增長進程,印度股市與整體亞洲股市評價面的溢價收斂後,為投資人提供長線買點。

Q3 基金標的推薦

第三季投資組合,股票和債券皆不可少,科技股仍是貫穿股市的產業主軸,成長性更是選股重要關鍵,成熟市場建議布局美股、日股、歐股為優,新興市場則看好印度不變,可透過瀚亞境內、境外系列基金投資,跟上資本利得上漲行情;另有完整的境外債券系列基金、平衡組合型產品供多元選擇。

2024 年第三季精選基金清單
2024q3outlook-1資料來源:瀚亞投信

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