摘要
美國 CPI 數據連三月高於市場預期,但後續公布的 PPI 卻有降溫跡象。從盤勢觀察,現在通膨對股市影響性不若以往,市場也無過多利空消息,研判今年下半年啟動降息機會較大,若開始降息,對股市將會是加分效果。
瀚亞投信台股投資總監劉博玄表示,儘管美股開始進入震盪階段,但台股在基本面佳、充沛的資金及 520 行情等三大利多的支撐下,表現仍相對強勁,整體盤勢仍維持在兩萬點之上。
研判台灣加權指數未來一個月將在 20,000 至 21,000 點間盤整,除非大盤進入連二交易日的長黑,否則多頭得以延續;展望後市,則可將觀盤重點放在半導體龍頭與近期漲幅凌厲的重電設備股等。
AI概念股洗牌 散熱、半導體獨強
輝達 GTC 展覽發表最強晶片 Blackwell,導致台灣 ASIC 類股開始修正,先前漲多 AI 類股也開始震盪,唯獨散熱、半導體類股仍相對強勁,預料 AI 供應鏈將開始調整,可能要等下半年態勢明朗後,整體類股走勢會較清晰。
輝達在市場扮演的角色如同當年的蘋果,之前只要蘋果新機發表,就會帶動供應鏈走勢;從蘋果到現在的輝達時代,唯有晶圓代工廠續航力最強,主因是晶片會愈做愈高階,進入障礙愈來愈高,可望受惠族群包括:晶圓代工、封測及設備等。
台灣產業三大聚焦 AI洗牌、景氣循環股迎反彈
一、 AI 應用擴大效應:隨 AI 應用產值持續擴大,供應鏈也將開始出現競爭,未來投資焦點也將聚焦在具高成長產值與技術門檻較高的產業,像是散熱、PCB、半導體及 ODM 等;建議回檔時可將這兩大類股作為核心配置,並將組裝、PCB 相關作為衛星配置。
二、 全球進入缺電荒:美國電力基礎建設汰舊換新需求,以及 AI 應用端對電力潛力需求較大,預估台灣重電設備廠商能受惠,近期漲勢也較凌厲,建議投資人可靜待拉回後布局;而台灣風電能源政策,佔台灣電力需求比重逐漸提高,看好風電廠商的中長期業績表現。
三、 景氣循環進入百業待興階段:面板、記憶體、紡織成衣及自行車的部分廠商,已率先出現庫存去化完畢並進入復甦階段;而金融業自去年開始,獲利逐漸好轉,市場普遍預估今年獲利表現仍會相對亮眼,搭配全球利率轉向鴿派,以及景氣迎復甦,預估金融業也將否極泰來。
表:瀚亞投信對台股後市展望看法
資料來源:瀚亞投信, 2024/04表:瀚亞台股系列基金投資特色
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