摘要
台股氣勢如虹,站上 24,000 點,走勢屢創新高。瀚亞專家研判,短線將處於高檔震盪階段,櫃買指數短線上較有表現空間,電子權值股可能會進入休憩階段,但金融權值可望接棒支撐大盤走勢。
若聯準會 9 月降息 資金行情有望再助攻
美國經濟數據好壞參半,市場對聯準會9月降息仍抱有期待,若屆時如市場預期,股市有望再掀起一波資金行情;距離 9 月利率政策會議還有段時間,是否開始啟動降息仍需觀察近二月的經濟數據,尤其通膨與就業數據,下個月利率路徑可能會更加明確,但短線消息面都將影響股票走勢,投資人仍需要有居高思危的心態。
台股上半年漲勢優於其他亞股,時間來到下半年,台股企業進入除權息旺季,高股息所配置的股票,在前波大量資金的挹注下,股價急漲,估計今年除息都可能出現貼息情況;反而市場上的低基期、高殖利率類股,近期可能較受資金青睞,較有機會出現填息行情。
台股高檔震盪:上漲有限、下檔有撐
台股本益比目前高於歷史平均,上漲空間相對有限,加上外資持續匯出,美元走強下,亞幣走勢也較疲弱,6月台股盤勢主導者仍是投信法人,外資在這波漲幅的參與度較低。
瀚亞投信國內投資部主管姚宗宏表示,儘管短線大盤會出現震盪,上漲空間有限,電子權值股可能會出現回檔,但金融股有望接棒,維持台股續漲動能;研判大盤指數將於 22,500 至 24,000 區間盤整,在資金充沛與產業基本面持續走強下,多頭格局得以延續,拉回仍應偏多操作。
表:7 月份台股展望
資料來源:瀚亞投信,2024/06。表:瀚亞台股系列基金投資特色
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