摘要
印度總理大選開跑,市場觀望情緒較濃厚,股市走勢呈現高檔震盪。瀚亞投信表示,當前正處選舉月份,經濟數據也小幅回落,但仍居長期高點,處高原震盪格局,而通膨數據持續回落,整體經濟穩健,靜待選舉結果出爐後,外資有望重新回流印股,進一步推升走勢。
印度企業獲利穩健 經濟成長動能強
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024 年 4 月小幅回升,處「股債均衡配置區」,隨著股市評價上升,指標也逼近「加碼債券部位區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。
ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,受惠於印度企業獲利穩健、印度經濟亮眼以及全球股市高漲,印度股市 4 月份多頭行情仍持續當中;印度央行利率政策會議按兵不動,顯示出對財年 2025 年的經濟成長持樂觀態度,市場情緒也相對高漲。
ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,由於印度銀行業強勁的業務更新,類股也出現明顯地上漲,使投資人對印度金融股保持樂觀態度,資金簇擁下,激勵金融類股的走勢。
靜待大選結果出爐 外資有望回流印股
境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的 瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度企業獲利自 2023 年以來呈現穩健向上格局,首季財報優於預期比例以金融與汽車產業表現較為亮眼,市場也預估印度企業獲利將逐季增長,後市行情仍值得期待。
林庭樟表示,印度總理大選開跑,結果將在 6 月出爐,但因市場觀望情緒濃厚,4 月份 PMI 指數小幅回落,但仍居長期高點,整體印股盤勢呈現高檔震盪格局;今年印度股市上漲動能來自內資力量,外資則因選舉因素較保守,前四月資金呈現淨賣超現象,靜待選舉結果愈接近明朗階段,有望進一步吸引外資流入,推升走勢。
林庭樟接著說,美國通膨數據回落,提振對聯準會降息的期待,美元指數有機會回落,若有機會下跌至 101 水位,外資流入印度股市的動能也會較顯著;除此,受惠於食品與能源價格下跌,促成通膨數據持續回落,市場也預估今年印度央行有機會降息 1 碼,對股市帶來加分效果。
圖、印度溫度計
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/4印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。
**資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2024/4/30 為 152.95 億元新台幣。
Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).
United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.
European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.
United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.
The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.
Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.
Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.
Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).