摘要
受惠於近十年消費與基礎建設的成長,印度經濟成長驅動仍相當穩健。瀚亞投信表示,印度具有優勢的人口紅利、人均所得也不斷提升、通膨受控、數位轉型、強勁的企業資產負債表,以及中央財政赤字鞏固等六大優勢,長期發展故事仍持續當中,印度股票中長線仍具上漲潛力,建議投資人可定期定額布局。
莫迪政府連任 預估政策不會有重大變化
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024 年 5 月小幅回落至 114,處「股債均衡配置區」,隨著股市評價上升,指標也逼近「加碼債券部位區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示,印度總理大選結果出爐,莫迪政府獲選並展開第三任任期,預期政策不會有重大變化,也將更加關注農村收入與就業環境;儘管印度將組成聯合政府,但預計不會改變印度經濟高速成長的態勢。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示,隨印度政治結果更加明確,短期內印度股票走勢波動可能會加劇,但整體印度經濟成長仍相當強勁,印度股票估值雖然很高,但建議投資人可持續投資印度股票,尤其看好估值較低的印度大型股。
印度經濟持續驚艷市場 外資有望重新回流
境內印度股票型基金規模最大的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度 5 月經濟產業維持穩定擴張,服務業與製造業PMI指數皆維持在高點,分別為 60.2 與 57.5;過往每年度的前三月都是印度淡季,但今年印度首季 GDP 增長意外強勁,達 8.2%,讓市場相當驚艷。
林庭樟說,印度股市評價面修正後,整體亞股估值溢價已大幅收斂,隨印度選舉的不確定性因素淡化,外資有望重新回流印度股市;短線上走勢雖然會有震盪,但仍看好中長線的上漲潛力,股市的修正也提供長線投資人買入機會。
圖、印度溫度計分數:114
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/5印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ ★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。
**資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2024/5/31 為 153.81 億元新台幣。
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