摘要
印度選舉不確定降溫後，外資開始回流印度股市，激勵走勢上漲，印度 Sensex 指數更來到 8 萬點大關。瀚亞投信表示，印度大選結果使市場情緒轉向樂觀，加上印度央行上調當地 GDP 成長預期、通膨也有所放緩，多項利多激勵內外資雙引擎助攻，股市屢創新高。
外資重新回流印股 印股飆新高
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示，2024 年 6 月明顯上升至 120.3，處「加碼債券部位區」，隨股市評價上漲，從股債均衡配置區來到加碼債券部位區。
ICICI 保誠資產管理表示，除了大選結果與印度經濟數據強勁之外，印度股市 6 月份的部分漲幅，來自於美國通膨與零售銷售數據疲軟的消息，使市場對聯準會至少降息 1 次的期望。
印度各產業公司強勁的獲利表現，推動整體收益成長表現；在內資與外資雙引擎的助攻下，印股 6 月漲勢強勁，惟接近月底時，受投資人獲利了結所致，市場出現邊際損失，但印股市值再突破新高，來到 5 兆美元水位，從 4 兆美元到 5 兆美元，僅花費 0.5 年時間。
在有利的人口紅利、人均收入不斷上升、可控制的通膨、數位轉型、強勁的企業資產負債表以及中央財政赤字的鞏固等利多加持下，印度數十年來的消費與基礎建設成長的根本驅動力依舊穩健。
ICICI 保誠資產管理表示，印度將迎來全面性的預算審查，預計不會出現重大的政策變化，可能會更加關注農村收入與就業情況，惟預算相關的消息面可能會加劇印股走勢波動；但印度總體經濟仍相當強勁，估值也很高，建議投資人持有股票同時，也可增加印度債券的持有比例。
內外資合力助攻印股 大型股掀補漲行情
境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示，印度過去數十年受到諸多限制，導致經濟發展受阻，而近年來在莫迪政府的支持下，持續增加公私領域的資本投入之外，政策層面也推出多項產業促進條例與執行層面的改革，如：PM Gati Shakti，用以統籌、規劃、分配、執行國家基礎建設與產業發展藍圖，使印度經濟發展不停歇，一直都在政經改革的道路上。
雖然印股已漲多，但仍有上漲潛力。林庭樟說，印度內資透過 SIP 等機制，持續參與這波狂牛盛宴，如台灣一樣，內資已經逐漸取代外資主導市場走勢的地位；隨著全球股市水漲船高，相較之下，印度股市仍在接近高原而非山頂的位置，且大型股仍處於相對低點位置，預料市場行情還未走完，建議投資人可透過定期定額方式參與印度投資，收穫黃金十年的改革成果。
圖、印度溫度計分數：120.3
資料來源：ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/6印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用，請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。 ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及英國保誠集團（Prudential plc）共同成立之資產管理公司，目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ ★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型，並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位，及股票落袋為安」等區間。
**資料來源：投信投顧公會，瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2024/6/30 為 163.71 億元新台幣。
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