摘要
高盛今年 3 月上調對東證股價指數(TOPIX)未來 12 個月的預期點位,從原先的 2,650 上調至 2,900,幅度近 10%。瀚亞投信表示,日股未來三至五年,在眾多利多接棒下獲得支撐,除了財務重整持續到 2026 年,政府對產業補助也將延續支撐力道。
日本自今年起至 2026 年期間接連的利多話題,使日股續漲動能得以延續。
一、2024 年日本春鬥協商結果,薪資調幅約 5%,隨後日本央行罕見地釋出多項政策決議,其中包括終止負利率環境;預料有感的薪資增幅,將拉抬日本內需消費,帶動各產業的經濟成長,形成正面的經濟循環。
二、日本內需帶動下,今年日本企業的財報有望更加亮眼,將有助於 2025 年的日股行情。
三、2026 年是東京證交所強迫企業財務重整的期限,預料整體企業資金效率將上軌道,而企業資本支出的提升,也將為往後帶來更多年的動能
四、2026 年以後,政府仍會對個別產業提供補助,包括:電池、半導體等,加上流程自動化與淨碳零等長期題材,日股行情值得期待。
先前全球科技股高漲下,激勵日本成長股的表現,近期資金輪動較快速,低評價個股逐漸受惠。 瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金研究團隊表示,近期日本成長股表現較疲弱,拖累大盤高檔震盪,反而中小型股較具抗跌性,預料隨資金輪動下,將轉至較低基期的類股,包括:化學、原物料等。
表:日股未來三至五年利多動能
資料來源:瀚亞投信。
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